1 Prediction for Every NBA Team This Season

Prediction: Jalen Johnson will be the team’s second-leading scorer.

Dejounte Murray’s exit gives the Atlanta Hawks usage to spare. Those opportunities will be filled by committee. Bogdan Bogdanović and rookie Zaccharie Risacher as well as Dyson Daniels and Kobe Bufkin all stand to benefit.

Nobody should receive more of a scoring bump than Jalen Johnson, one of last year’s primary Most Improved Player candidates before the appearances benchmark got in the way. He finished fourth on the team in points per game and will have a real crack at the runner-up spot behind Trae Young.

This isn’t meant to double as a prediction that Bogdanović is due for decline. Nor should we expect Johnson to start suddenly initiating a boatload of pick-and-rolls and running possessions from dead stops. This is more like a vote of confidence in comprehensive improvement.

Johnson polished off just about every part of his offensive game last season: the shooting, the floor-running, the catch-and-go decision-making, etc. He should see more overall volume this year, and with Bogdanović likely taking on more table-setting reps, it opens the door for the 22-year-old to go from 16 points per game to somewhere north of 20.

Prediction: Jayson Tatum comfortably averages a career high in assists.

Jayson Tatum’s playmaking has been on the ascent for a while, culminating in what was some ridiculous high-stakes table-setting during last year’s title run. He averaged seven assists over the Boston Celtics’ final 10 games, showcasing pretty much every ounce of growth he’s cobbled together.

This trend will continue in a big way through 2024-25. Hitting his career high in assists can feel like a given. Five dimes per game gets him there, and he doesn’t play beside floor generals who have to monopolize the ball.

My gut tells me he’ll comfortably clear the career-high benchmark. I am also a coward, so I can’t get to the seven-assists prediction bouncing around my brain.

It says a lot that this doesn’t feel outside the realm of possibility. Tatum has improved so much at passing out of double-teams and exploiting live-dribble rotations, and with Kristaps Porziņģis on the shelf until at least 2025, we shouldn’t rule out seeing more of Boston’s superstar working out of the post.

Prediction: The Brooklyn Nets finish with the league’s worst record.

Bottoming out is the Nets’ endgame for the next two years after reacquiring control of their 2025 and 2026 first-rounders from the Houston Rockets. But that doesn’t mean finishing with the NBA’s lowest winning percentage is a given.

Other teams are firmly entrenched in the pursuit of Cooper Flagg (and Ace Bailey). Some of them are just as equipped, if not more so, to lose out of the gate and gain valuable ground in the race to the bottom.

The Utah Jazz have shifted all the way into developmental mode. Rival lottery-odds obsessive cannot bank on head coach Will Hardy chaperoning his crew toward too many wins and not enough losses forever.

Another Western Conference team should find itself in full-on descent. The smart money’s on the Portland Trail Blazers. They have a deep well of talent across every rotation spot, but zero immediate star power, and it’s not quite clear whether the front office is attempting to accelerate its timeline or get ready to have the fire sale many expected last season—and then again this past summer.

Oh, and the Washington Wizards exist. Plus, history and/or common sense suggests one or more of the Charlotte Hornets, Chicago Bulls and Detroit Pistons will suck.

Have faith in the Nets anyway. General manager Sean Marks understands the mission. He is the one who laid it out. If the Nets are too good, dramatic measures will be taken, via both trades and lineup decisions. And while select In The Pooper For Cooper peers will have logistical pivots up their sleeves, most of them have one or two or more players capable of propping up or breaking out in a way that anchors watchable and somewhat effective offenses. Brooklyn does not. Which, for its own purposes, is a good thing.

Prediction: Tidjane Salaun earns a rotation spot earlier than expected.

Finding regular minutes out of the gate for rookie Tidjane Salaun will be tough in the Charlotte Hornets’ frontcourt. Miles Bridges, Brandon Miller, Mark Williams (when healthy), Grant Williams and Nick Richards are all in front of him. And this isn’t a team that seems itching to bottom out or make trades earlier than anyone else. (Counterpoint: Maybe they are that team.)

And yet, it’s going to happen anyway.

Salaun looked the dials-all-go-to-11 part during preseason. He hustled up and down the court and uncorked threes with zero hesitation. There will be a defensive learning curve, but confidence to let it fly from distance and relentless floor-running are difference-making complements for a squad built around LaMelo and Miller.

A more typical order of events will see Salaun get substantial run after the trade deadline. It will happen before then. Maybe injuries up front will allow it—demand it. Or perhaps head coach Charles Lee regularly goes 11 deep. Whatever the reason, and despite being billed as a project, Salaun’s energy will prove infectious enough, undeniable enough, that he becomes a mainstay outside garbage time sooner rather than later.

Prediction: The front office gets more than one first-round pick for Zach LaVine.

Perception of Zach LaVine has officially—and long ago—veered too far into pessimistic waters.

The three years and $138 million left on his contract is a lot. And his health bill is miles from clean. But he has spent the past half-year or so being viewed through an alarmist’s lens, as if he’s someone for whom the Bulls would be lucky to flip for expiring money, let alone actually draft and prospect equity.

That stance severely understates LaVine’s utility as an on-ball creator who scales to an away-from-the-ball spacer. And if preseason is any indication, he is ready to resume his place among the league’s most dangerous off-the-dribble shot-makers.

Somebody, somewhere, will recognize the translatability of LaVine’s skill set, and how he might look as a third or interchangeable second option as opposed to a central focus. And once they do, the Bulls will move him for actual value—if not two first-round picks, then at least one attached to an intriguing prospect.

Prediction: Evan Mobley will more than double his three-point attempts per game.

Hiring Kenny Atkinson to replace J.B. Bickerstaff suggests the Cleveland Cavaliers are searching for a more inventive offensive structure. And if Atkinson’s early years with the Brooklyn Nets are any indication, any innovation will include advancing the team’s three-point volume even further than it went last season.

Evan Mobley will be invited to that party—and attendance is mandatory.

More than boubling his three-point attempts per game is a steep ask. It helps that he’s working off a low baseline. Mobley finished last year averaging 1.2 looks from deep—low volume that’s right in line with his career mark (1.2).

From February on, though, he attempted 1.8 per game (while draining them at a 41.7 percent clip). That’s not a far cry from the 2.5 he must reach for this to hit.

Mobley’s preseason stylings also bode well for this prediction. He put up 2.3 threes per game while averaging under 26 minutes. His volume should climb past the threshold once he’s handling games-that-matter reps.

Prediction: Both the offense and defense rank in the top seven of points per possession.

Take the Dallas Mavericks’ 17th-place defense from last year at face value, and this prediction seems inane. View it through their post-trade-deadline performance, during which they ranked seventh in points allowed per possession, and this proclamation is nondescript as hell.

Factor in the departure of Derrick Jones Jr. and the addition of Klay Thompson and the significant minutes he’s slated to play, and we wind up back inside inane territory.

Sounds like the right type of prediction to me.

There is nothing to discuss on offense. Dallas has Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving and added Thompson—who, despite what certain corners of the internet would have you believe, has not devolved into a minimum-contract contributor just because he doesn’t guard at an All-Defense level.

The less glamorous end of the floor is nevertheless the primary concern. Can the Mavs turn in a quality defense with Luka, Kyrie and Klay logging ample time together? And do they have enough contingent levers to pull when they start to stagger them?

My answer is a resounding “yes”—on both counts.

Lineups with Luka, Kyrie and Klay will always have two of Dereck Lively II, Daniel Gafford, P.J. Washington and Naji Marshall behind them. That is huge—literally and figuratively. Staggered combinations can have up to three of those guys as well as Quentin Grimes, who spent his first two seasons in the league drilling threes and tackling some of the toughest individual perimeter assignments at a high level.

This is all going to work. Dallas may not match the season-long returns expected from Boston, Minnesota, Oklahoma City, Orlando and even Cleveland. But it has the personnel to hover closer to the top five or six than outside the top 10.

Prediction: Nikola Jokić wins his fourth MVP award.

There, I said it. Well, actually, I already said it. Twice. But I’m saying it again, under my own byline, to hold myself accountable.

Winning four MVP awards is damn near impossible. Only five players have done it: Wilt Chamberlain (four), LeBron James (four), Michael Jordan (five), Bill Russell (five) and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (six). I’m picking Nikola Jokić to become the sixth.

Voter fatigue is of course a factor. Jokić has won three of the last four. The field of direct competitors is teeming with alternatives. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Dončić and Giannis Antetokounmpo all have no-brainer preseason cases, and the same can be said for stars like Jalen Brunson, Anthony Edwards and Jayson Tatum.

Jokić’s appeal endures anyway. We know he’s going to have the numbers. He will average something like 27 points, 12 rebounds and nine assists, if not an outright triple-double, on ultra-efficient scoring inside the arc while notching one of the league’s largest net-rating swings.

Now is around the time his anecdotal case should suffer. But consensus hasn’t been this low on the Denver Nuggets in some time. That works in Jokić’s favor.

If they win enough to hover near the top of the Western Conference while carving out (much) larger roles for youngsters like Christian Braun, Peyton Watson and Julian Strawther and navigating the Russell Westbrook experience, perhaps even optimizing it, who will be deemed primarily responsible? Spoiler alert: It won’t be general manager Calvin Booth or head coach Michael Malone. If the preseason (and Olympics) are any indication, it will not be Jamal Murray, either.

It’ll be Jokić, the generational superstar who will have ferried a team relying on youthful question marks and divisive supporting cast members to contender status, all without the help, in all likelihood, of a fellow All-Star.

Prediction: Cade Cunningham makes the All-Star team.

Early-season impressions of Cade Cunningham took hold last year and never really released their grip. To many, he was an inefficient scorer with a knack for giving away possessions from start to finish—even though the latter is decidedly inaccurate.

Cunningham averaged 22.5 points and 7.8 assists after Christmas while banging in 38 percent of his triples and lowering his turnover rate from 15.8 to 12.6 amid an increase in usage. Should we really expect him to be any worse? When he’s once again healthy? And when the Detroit Pistons have given him even more floor-spacers to play alongside?

If anything, the extra breathing room should serve to elevate his inside the arc game.

Take all preseason returns with a metric ton of salt, but almost 34 percent of his looks came inside eight feet, where he shot 66.7 percent (12-of-18). That volume presents a downtick from 2023-24, but Cunningham converted just 50 percent of his attempts within eight feet. Boosting that number juices his overall efficiency and scoring output while maybe, just maybe, rendering him a more frequent visitor to the charity stripe.

Basically, Cunningham finished last year on an All-Star trajectory. He will pick up where he left off this season—and perhaps even exceed those expectations.

Prediction: Jonathan Kuminga gets up more than five threes per game.

If preseason is any indication, this prediction is more cowardly than fearless. Jonathan Kuminga put up seven threes per 36 minutes, keeping in theme with the Golden State Warriors’ approach to let ‘er fly.

That volume is a stark departure from seasons past. We have seen pockets in which Kuminga can fire away four or five threes. But he’s so conditioned to drive and attack that outside volume is seldom his default.

This isn’t necessarily going to change. He is still most lethal going downhill. But he’s launching triples without an ounce of hesitation. And while that’s easier to do when they’re falling at a 44 percent clip, Kuminga will need to sustain real downtown volume so long as the Warriors plan to play him with Draymond Green and another big—and, potentially, Andrew Wiggins.

Prediction: Amen Thompson and/or Reed Sheppard start more than half of the team’s games.

Houston Rockets head coach Ime Udoka has already intimated he will stick with last year’s starting five of Fred VanVleet, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Jabari Smith Jr. and Alperen Şengün. That is fair relative to how the team fared last season. (Houston certainly isn’t benching Şengün or Green after signing them to extensions.)

It is also debatable.

Because Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard exist.

Spacing challenges in mind, Thompson looks the part of a monster driver, defender and off-ball opportunist. There remains more to plumb with his playmaking and overall ball-handling. Those parts of his game are conceptually easier to explore off the bench, when he’s more staggered than Şengün. But there is no way it’s the long-term plan.

Much of the same goes for Sheppard. Starting him over Green, Brooks or FVV flies in the face of rookie-veteran and paygrade politics. But his on- and off-ball threat level, coupled with his try-hard stamina on defense, has already translated so well he would be viewed as a Rookie of the Year formality if he were guaranteed to log enough minutes.

Taking this approach is fine—for now. It won’t last forever. Or even this season. Whether it’s because the Rockets shake things up and move Brooks or FVV or because Thompson and/or Sheppard become so undeniable that they leave Udoka with no choice, at least one of these core prospects will start more games than they spend coming off the bench.

Prediction: The Indiana Pacers will trade for someone who closes games.

Low-hanging fruit is nutritious.

Gobs of people before me have called for the Pacers to land an actual wing. Those insistences aren’t about to subside. Indiana has injected degrees of urgency into its window simply by re-signing and extending multiple core members.

Romantics will claim the answer is already on the roster. Which…sure. But while both Jarace Walker and Bennedict Mathurin turned heads during the preseason, neither of them are currently exactly what the Pacers need on defense: someone to consistently rumble with top wing assignments, who can spare Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith and Pascal Siakam from shouldering outsized assignments, while further insulating Tyrese Haliburton and, preferably, pitching in on the boards.

Walker has the best chance, it seems, of turning into that player. Whether Indiana has time to wait—and the stomach to let him develop—is a separate matter.

Maybe it does. And this isn’t akin, necessarily, to saying the team will flip Walker or Mathurin to get this closing-lineup member. We also shouldn’t rule it out.

The Pacers are exiting the honeymoon phase of their happy-to-be-here existence. They acknowledged as much by trading for—and then paying—Siakam. We should continue to expect that they will operate in this manner, particularly when they still have the matching salaries and draft equity to land someone who moves the needle.

Prediction: James Harden leads the league in assists per game.

James Harden already has two assist titles to his name. This year will see him get a third.

Yes, this is a spicier prediction than most others. Some will see it as less fearless and more deranged. Harden is 35, the Los Angeles Clippers are headed in a direction to nowhere that could feature trading him along the way, and, uh, Tyrese Haliburton and Luka Dončić and Trae Young and Nikola Jokić all exist.

Fair points. All of them. But Harden is also about to have Houston Rockets era influence over the Clippers offense. Paul George is gone. Kawhi Leonard is out indefinitely. And the team’s alternative playmaking options do not include another primary or even entrenched secondary floor general.

Extreme heliocentrism would typically be a license to forecast a James Harden scoring title. Now that goes too far. Harden does not get to the rim nearly as often as before. Combined with the shift in how games are (expected to be) called, he is no longer guaranteed to pick up as many freebie opportunities at the line.

Assists will come easier. And they may not be all that easy. Harden needs those around him to make shots. He can’t lead the league in dimes while exclusively turning to a two-man game with Ivica Zubac.

That is yet another reason to pivot. Once again, though, the sheer amount of time Harden should spend on-ball is the difference-maker. The conversion rate on his potential assists may not be all that high. He’s just going to have so many of them it might not matter.

Prediction: Head coach JJ Redick gets them to finish in the top half of both three-point attempt and offensive rebounding rates.

“Top half” is not phrasing associated with marked improvement when riffing on teams with immediate aspirations. The Los Angeles Lakers are different.

Last year’s squad ranked 28th in the share of its shots that came from distance and finished 29th in offensive rebounding percentage. Getting to 15th, in both categories, qualifies as a monumental jump.

We saw traces of extra emphasis in both areas during preseason. The Lakers ranked 18th in three-pointers attempted per 100 possessions and then 16th in boarding their own misses.

Leveling up during the regular season may require pristine availability. But less proven rotation swing factors like Dalton Knecht and Max Christie seem empowered to get ’em up from three, and true to his word, Redick has guards and wings crashing in from the corners to try grabbing misses.

Prediction: Zach Edey will average a double-double with at least 1.5 blocks per game.

Zach Edey will have no trouble hitting the points-per-game threshold. His summer-league and preseason appearances have served as proof of concept for his utility inside the Memphis Grizzlies offense.

Getting to 10-plus boards and 1.5 blocks is a different story. Those benchmarks are lofty enough that they’re more at the mercy of his playing time. Edey profiles as a huge part of this Grizzlies team. But can we really ticket him for 30 minutes or so per game?

Let’s go with yes. Memphis’ rotation doesn’t have a contingency who does everything he can, and his ability to stay out of foul trouble, so far, squares away with the idea of his NBA readiness.

Rebounds will come in spades if he’s on the floor enough. A healthy Jaren Jackson Jr. can roam and free up Edey to focus on boarding misses. It would not shock me if the rookie hits two blocks per game for this same reason.

Still, this baseline production is ambitious enough. If you disagree, well, I hope you’re right. Either way, it’s an esteemed threshold to clear.

Here’s every rookie to average at least 10 points, 10 rebounds and 1.5 blocks: Tim Duncan, Alonzo Mourning, Dikembe Mutombo, Shaquille O’Neal, Emeka Okafor, Hakeem Olajuwon, David Robinson, Ralph Sampson, Karl-Anthony Towns and Victor Wembanyama. This is pretty good company, and it’s about to include Edey.

Prediction: Bam Adebayo attempts more than three triples per game.

I have probably predicted some variation of “Bam Adebayo will take more threes!” in the past. This time, I really mean it.

Adebayo dabbled in more outside volume by the end of 2024-25. But that uptick still topped out below two attempts from deep per game. He is going to obliterate that mark this year.

Point to whatever evidence most tickles your fancy. You have what he did during the Olympics. And then there’s his preseason volume (5.8 attempts per 36 minutes). Both factor into the logic here.

Necessity wins the day, though.

The Miami Heat’s offense can get too clumpy if Bam is at the elbows or being unguarded from beyond the arc. Jimmy Butler finds a way to provide rim pressure anyway, but he and Bam are often playing beside one or two other shooters about whom opposing teams don’t care.

Significantly bumping up Bam’s three-point volume goes a long way toward decongesting the half-court environment. He doesn’t even need to hit them, necessarily, at an absurd clip. He just has to take enough—and, yes, make enough—to incite more reactions from the defense.

Prediction: Giannis Antetokounmpo is more efficient than ever.

Giannis Antetokounmpo posted a 64.9 true shooting percentage last season, outstripping his previous career high of 64.4 from 2018-19.

Another personal-best mark is coming.

Better shot distribution fuels my belief that Giannis can explore new heights approaching his 30th birthday in December. Last season saw him cut down on mid-rangers and threes. This year is already seeing more of the same. He did not take a single three through two preseason appearances and just 16.1 percent of his overall attempts (five total) came as twos outside of the paint.

Exchanging more of those looks for higher-quality drives and dives toward the rim should further buoy his efficiency. And those opportunities will be made even more possible if the Milwaukee Bucks get a better version of Damian Lillard, a human inferno who struggled to knock down catch-and-shoot threes last season.

This in some ways doubles as blind faith that Giannis can up his free-throw clip. (For those who may not know: True shooting is a collective measure of two-point, three-point and free-throw efficiency.) This inkling isn’t evidence-based. Antetokounmpo canned 70.6 percent of his freebies in the preseason, but 17 attempts isn’t a telltale sample. He did routinely clear 70 percent prior to 2019-20, so there’s that.

Whatever. This isn’t critical to the underlying mission. Giannis has spit out bonkers efficiency amid unspectacular free-throw displays for years. Even if this season at the charity stripe is no different, the rest of his game will continue to be.

Prediction: Donte DiVincenzo gets more Sixth Man of the Year votes than Naz Reid.

As a career-long holder of Naz Reid stock, this absolutely pains me to predict. But I am doing it anyway.

Most lasered in on the Minnesota Timberwolves’ lack of a secondary ball-handling and creation last year. That wasn’t wrong. But complementary wing shooting was also at a noticeable deficit.

DiVencenzo’s fixes essentially all of that. It isn’t just last year’s long-range volume (third in total attempts) or efficiency (40.1 percent), but the manner in which they come. DiVincenzo can drill shots off balance, after flying around the half-court, from ultra-deep ranges. His impact will be felt not just in makes but in the space he opens up for Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle, Rob Dillingham, Mike Conley, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and even Reid himself.

Where these two rate on the Sixth Man of the Year scale may be a matter of preference. Reid is critical to peppering over the loss of Karl-Anthony Towns and coming off a SMOY victory. DiVincenzo, on the other hand, feels like he has the cleaner path to higher-leverage moments. He can be subbed into closing lineups for Randle or Conley (assuming Edwards, Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels are all locks).

Can the same be said for Reid? Probably not. He’s more of a plug-in for Gobert or Randle, both of whom seem less likely to get the hook when it matters most.

Make no bones about it, I am aware this could look egregious. I am assigning value to how the Wolves say they view Randle when many others probably believe his place in the pecking order is more fluid. This could all end with head coach Chris Finch bringing Randle off the bench and starting Reid or even DiVincenzo, rendering this predicting either a lock or hopeless.

We will see how this plays out. On the bright side, no matter where you land, this entire discussion paints a rosy-AF picture of Minnesota’s depth, even after an opening-night performance to forget.

Prediction: The recently extended Trey Murphy III will finish the season as a starter.

Does this amount to predicting the New Orleans Pelicans will trade Brandon Ingram? Or CJ McCollum?

Is it based on the assumption that New Orleans won’t trade—and then start—a conventionally sized big?

Am I simply saying a healthy Murphy will prove to be so valuable that he starts no matter what the rest of the roster looks like, logistical and optical politics be positively damned?? Is this a purely “They paid him (starting next season) so they are obviously going to start him” situation?

Take this declaration however you like. I won’t pretend to know the Pelicans’ endgame. Their roster is currently built in a way that seems accidental.

Regardless, whether it’s because New Orleans trades others or demotes them, Murphy will finish the year as an every-night starter. The real question is why, right hamstring injury aside, it doesn’t seem like he will begin the season as one.

Prediction: Karl-Anthony Towns sets a career high in three-point attempts per game.

This prediction is off to a horrendous start after Karl-Anthony Towns fired away just two threes in 24 minutes during the New York Knicks’ opening-night beatdown at the hands of the Boston Celtics. I am pushing forward with (faux)-confidence anyway.

Despite his reputation as an all-time floor-spacing big man, Towns has seldom bombed away in conventional terms. His career high in three-point attempts per game is 7.9. That’s pretty high. But it came all the way back in 2019-20—across a 35-game sample.

Since then, Towns has averaged six or more long-range attempts per game just once. And overall, he’s placed inside the top 50 in average three-point tries just twice. He peaked at 17th in 2019-20 and then placed 50th in 2020-21.

Towns’ career high will be reset this year. It almost has to be. His threat level from beyond the arc is among the bedrocks upon which the New York Knicks’ five-out hopes are built.

Sure, there will be room—and perhaps a demand—for him to sponge up traditional-hub reps. And you definitely want him attacking off over-aggressive closeouts and beelining toward the basket after screening for Jalen Brunson. But given the amount of minutes he’ll play beside the Knicks’ MVP, Towns will invariably be saddled with spacing around JB’s probing inside the arc.

If I were braver, I would predict that KAT places inside the top 10 of three-point attempts per game. It turns out I am a coward. But KAT won’t be. Couple his green light with New York’s biggest needs around Brunson and the Thibsian number of minutes KAT’s bound to log, and clearing eight tries a night from deep should be a relative formality, if not a mandate.

Prediction: They will win at least 65 games

This prediction feels slightly bolder following the fracture Isaiah Hartenstein suffered in his left hand. But only slightly.

The Oklahoma City Thunder won 57 games last season without Hartenstein on the roster. They have since subbed out the awkward-fitting Josh Giddey for the divine-fitting Alex Caruso, and their depth remains absurd. OKC’s bench units should prove annihilatory, and it’ll be shocking if this isn’t a top-three defense.

Wins could be harder to come by in this year’s Western Conference. The tippy top of the field should be better. But that includes the Thunder.

Not one of their best players is in descent. Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams will improve, and even if Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has peaked after consecutive First Team All-NBA selections, he’s not on the downswing. (Uh, also, he may not be done getting better.)

Teams this patently dominant can sometimes become their own regular-season cap. They prioritize self-preservation ahead of the playoffs. The Thunder are not at that stage in their existence. They are going to chase victories. And they’re going to get them.

Prediction: At least four players will make 100 threes.

Allow me to begin with an aside. I so badly wanted to predict the Orlando Magic will rank inside the top half of transition frequency. This team can and should run more—particularly off opponent misses. Sadly, or something, the preseason scared me into accepting reality.

And so, we move on to collective three-point shooting.

Both Paolo Banchero and Jalen Suggs cleared 100 long-range makes last year. They will do it again this season. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope’s arrival gets us to player No. 3.

Now it gets tricky.

Franz Wagner is the easy pick for No. 4. That doesn’t make him the safe choice. Even if you are confident his threes will fall at a higher clip, we cannot guarantee he will fire them off with the necessary volume. To be clear, he could do it. But we need another option or two to make this prediction reasonable.

Enter Jett Howard. He seems in line for a bigger role and is unafraid to unbottle deepies. Both Cole Anthony and Gary Harris also loom as options depending how much you expect them to play.

Some will maintain this is more fear-filled than not—too reserved. Perhaps they are right. If you promised me Wagner gets there, I would bump this number up to five. But just two players met the criteria last year. Doubling that number is eminently doable, though far from assured.

Prediction: The Big Three plays at least 1,000 minutes.

Is this my attempt to manifest better health and availability from the Philadelphia 76ers’ stars than we saw during the preseason? I am not going to say yes.

Even though that’s totally what I am doing.

This may not seem like a lot of joint court time. But 1,000 minutes suggests Joel Embiid, Paul George and Tyrese Maxey will be collectively available for at least 45 to 50 games.

That’s a tall order when you consider the regular-season track records of PG and Embiid, and if you believe the latter is done playing in back-to-backs. Embiid and Maxey didn’t even clear 1,000 minutes last season as a duo.

This becomes a much more ambitious ask knowing that Embiid was on the shelf during preseason with left knee issues, and that George finished the exhibition slate alongside him with a left knee injury of his own. Neither will be available for Philly’s first game Wednesday night.

Screw red flags, though. Unless we get doomsday updates on George or Embiid, and unless head coach Nick Nurse suddenly adopts an ultra-foreign “Use your best players less” approach, this is possible. It may not be especially likely, but whatever. Positivity is cooler until it’s no longer an option.

Prediction: Ryan Dunn makes an All-Rookie team.

Keyboarding under the influence of preseason basketball is all sorts of wrong…in most cases. And, well, this could be one of them.

Rookie Ryan Dunn was considered a complete and total non-shooter coming out of Virginia. He then proceeded to drill 43.3 percent of his threes through five preseason tilts, on nearly 10 attempts per 36 minutes.

That volume and efficiency almost assuredly won’t hold. But if Dunn is a willing and capable marksman on the in-rhythm threes opponents will concede, his defensive impact will make him impossible to bury on the bench. This version of Dunn, in fact, is someone who could close games.

Having any impact, at all, for a contender in your first year is a big deal. Cason Wallace and Dereck Lively II rode this baseline to no-brainer All-Rookie selections.

Dunn is not them. His value and role to his current team is more borderline—most definitely when compared to Lively. But the Phoenix Suns have all sorts of unsettled matters beyond their Big Three. Dunn has a chance to become a rotation regular. I’m betting he does and then counting on that fueling his case as a top-10 newbie.

Prediction: The defense is league-average or better (until or unless they start making trades).

Sustaining an average defense isn’t a world-beating feat…unless you’re still in the throes of a rebuild…which is exactly where the Portland Trail Blazers find themselves. And then, if it happens, it’s just downright impressive.

Get ready to be impressed(?).

Portland finished 23rd in points allowed per possession last year. That number is actually better than its situation suggests. Injuries and late-season record manipulation ran rampant. It is a minor wonder the team wasn’t worse.

The Blazers will be a lot better this season—potentially on purpose. The rebounding (and, thus, bandwidth to end possessions) already appears on the ascent. Slightly more optimistic availability from Deandre Ayton and, much more questionably, Robert Williams III will go a long way in tandem with Donovan Clingan.

Toumani Camara continues to look like a Goliath. Jerami Grant can still hold his own. A healthy Shaedon Sharpe (please?) is pesty. Adding Deni Avdija injects more size and physicality and perimeter mobility into a rotation that, frankly, already had tons of it.

Color this too “out there” rather than fearless or optimistic. That might be the correct call, particularly when Scoot Henderson and Anfernee Simons will factor prominently into the rotation. But the personnel on this roster has the collective every-level chops to inflict chaos into opposing offenses while propping up a base half-court scheme that eludes pushover status.

Prediction: Keegan Murray receives multiple (out-of-market) All-Defense votes.

Someone more fearless than I will pencil in Keegan Murray for the top of the Most Improved Player ballot. That is reasonable in a vacuum. I have a tough time getting there when his offensive usage doesn’t project to significantly expand after the addition of DeMar DeRozan.

This will, however, be the year more people who don’t religiously follow the Sacramento Kings begin to appreciate Murray’s defense.

At the moment, there seems to be an element of praise by default. The Kings don’t have a ton of write-home peskiness, so Murray gets an “Atta boy!” for lugging a mammoth workload.

Except, well, what he does is not an overextension of his skills. The Kings didn’t just throw him on everyone from Stephen Curry to star wings to certified bigs just because. They did it because yeah, they had to, but also because it works. Murray held his own last year in so many different one-on-one situations, across all different types of assignments, while also improving his screen and overall floor navigation and emerging as a consistent helper around the basket.

Sacramento will have him shouldering the same level of responsibility—if not a heavier workload. And the rest of the basketball world will take notice. Forecasting an All-Defense appearance is too ambitious. But he’s going to get votes—consideration that won’t feel erroneous.

Prediction: Victor Wembanyama finishes in the top five of MVP, Defensive Player of the Year AND Most Improved Player

Putting Victor Wembanyama inside the top five for Defensive Player of the Year is the opposite of courageous. He is the default pick for most.

Slotting him in the top five of the MVP ladder is zestier, and at the same time, not at all hyperbolic. Imagining an outright victory is tough. But he will get plenty of fourth- and fifth-place votes if he props up an elite defense during his minutes and the San Antonio Spurs register as a net plus with him on the floor.

Most improved Player may be the diciest proposition. Perception seems to have softened on consideration for sophomores. But the “They are supposed to improve by leaps and bounds in Year 2” logic persists. And hey, it’s not exactly wrong.

Still, if Wemby’s per-game numbers tick up while seeing him cut down on his turnovers and nail more of his spot-up threes, arguments in the vein of “Going from fringe All-Star to interstellar superstar and peripheral MVP candidate is among the hardest leaps to make!” will be out in full force.

Prediction: Scottie Barnes joins the 25-and-eight club.

Averaging 25 points and eight assists per game is something at which we don’t drop our jaws anymore. That’s kind of a bummer. But doing it before your 24th birthday remains objectively ridiculous.

That’s why I am forecasting Scottie Barnes to become the fifth player to average 25 and 8 before reaching that milestone. If successful, he will join the likes of Luka Doncic (4x), Trae Young (3x), Oscar Robertson (2x), Tiny Archibald and Ja Morant. Not sure about you, but that seems like pretty good company.

Granted, this is an ambitious feat relative to what Barnes averaged last year. He checked in around 20 points and six assists—while playing a large chunk of the season for a Toronto Raptors team better than the one in place now. But the state of the organization is part of the appeal. Someone has to drive the offense. If not the Florida State product, then who?

Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett will soak up scoring and playmaking reps but not nearly enough to displace Barnes from the ball during full-strength minutes. Even if you’re a Jamal Shead, Davion Mitchell and/or Bruce Brown (injured) enthusiast, all of them top out as secondary initiators at the absolute best.

Regardless of who Toronto trots out, Barnes will be central to everything. And this says nothing about the stretches he plays without one or both of Quickley and Barrett.

Phrased another way: Barnes is going to put up numbers this season. And they’re going to have historical significance.

Prediction: Cody Williams finishes top three in Rookie of the Year voting.

Rookie of the Year contention is inextricably bound to opportunity. Consideration finds those who play a crap ton out of the gate.

Cody Williams should have no trouble meeting that criteria. The Utah Jazz are married to the future more than the present, and he’s among the few (read: two) true wings on the roster.

Standing out statistically could be more of a challenge. Paint me unconcerned. Williams can impact the game in just about every area—as a spacer, a transition threat, a driver, an on-ball defender, a helper, you name it.

Modest scoring totals could upend this prediction. Williams has more on-ball depth—and vision—than usually advertised. But he doesn’t always play like it. This is someone who may invariably suffer from thinking he cannot or should not do more, even though he can and should and must.

This isn’t enough for me to downgrade my prediction to a more cookie-cutter “Williams makes an All-Rookie team” slant. His utility is too well-rounded for superfluous caution.

Prediction: Kyshawn George makes an All-Rookie team.

This space initially had “Kyshawn George finishes the season inside the Washington Wizards starting lineup.” He rendered that too vanilla by the end of preseason.

George has some questions if you think he can turn into more of a featured scorer—mainly his capacity to generate consistent separation on the ball. The rest of his game looks ready. Or close to it.

While Washington’s rookie doesn’t forecast as a lockdown defender, he is using his size and length to successfully compete, and he’s turned in more than his fair share of help plays away from the rock. The three-ball looks good, and he’s made some sharp decisions inside the arc.

Opportunity will not be hard to come by on a Wizards squad with the timeline and intention to offer it. And George’s passing may very well be a hidden-gem tipping point. The quick swings and, more notably, composure and reads he has shown coming off ball screens are not strengths yours truly had on my Kyshawn George Year 1 bingo card.

So go ahead and pencil him in for one of those 10 All-Rookie slots. He is going to get one, and after bagging him at No. 24, Washington’s front office will be doing somersaults—if it’s not already.