1 Prediction for Every NBA Team This Season

Prediction: Amen Thompson and/or Reed Sheppard start more than half of the team’s games.

Houston Rockets head coach Ime Udoka has already intimated he will stick with last year’s starting five of Fred VanVleet, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Jabari Smith Jr. and Alperen Şengün. That is fair relative to how the team fared last season. (Houston certainly isn’t benching Şengün or Green after signing them to extensions.)

It is also debatable.

Because Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard exist.

Spacing challenges in mind, Thompson looks the part of a monster driver, defender and off-ball opportunist. There remains more to plumb with his playmaking and overall ball-handling. Those parts of his game are conceptually easier to explore off the bench, when he’s more staggered than Şengün. But there is no way it’s the long-term plan.

Much of the same goes for Sheppard. Starting him over Green, Brooks or FVV flies in the face of rookie-veteran and paygrade politics. But his on- and off-ball threat level, coupled with his try-hard stamina on defense, has already translated so well he would be viewed as a Rookie of the Year formality if he were guaranteed to log enough minutes.

Taking this approach is fine—for now. It won’t last forever. Or even this season. Whether it’s because the Rockets shake things up and move Brooks or FVV or because Thompson and/or Sheppard become so undeniable that they leave Udoka with no choice, at least one of these core prospects will start more games than they spend coming off the bench.

Prediction: The Indiana Pacers will trade for someone who closes games.

Low-hanging fruit is nutritious.

Gobs of people before me have called for the Pacers to land an actual wing. Those insistences aren’t about to subside. Indiana has injected degrees of urgency into its window simply by re-signing and extending multiple core members.

Romantics will claim the answer is already on the roster. Which…sure. But while both Jarace Walker and Bennedict Mathurin turned heads during the preseason, neither of them are currently exactly what the Pacers need on defense: someone to consistently rumble with top wing assignments, who can spare Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith and Pascal Siakam from shouldering outsized assignments, while further insulating Tyrese Haliburton and, preferably, pitching in on the boards.

Walker has the best chance, it seems, of turning into that player. Whether Indiana has time to wait—and the stomach to let him develop—is a separate matter.

Maybe it does. And this isn’t akin, necessarily, to saying the team will flip Walker or Mathurin to get this closing-lineup member. We also shouldn’t rule it out.

The Pacers are exiting the honeymoon phase of their happy-to-be-here existence. They acknowledged as much by trading for—and then paying—Siakam. We should continue to expect that they will operate in this manner, particularly when they still have the matching salaries and draft equity to land someone who moves the needle.

Prediction: James Harden leads the league in assists per game.

James Harden already has two assist titles to his name. This year will see him get a third.

Yes, this is a spicier prediction than most others. Some will see it as less fearless and more deranged. Harden is 35, the Los Angeles Clippers are headed in a direction to nowhere that could feature trading him along the way, and, uh, Tyrese Haliburton and Luka Dončić and Trae Young and Nikola Jokić all exist.

Fair points. All of them. But Harden is also about to have Houston Rockets era influence over the Clippers offense. Paul George is gone. Kawhi Leonard is out indefinitely. And the team’s alternative playmaking options do not include another primary or even entrenched secondary floor general.

Extreme heliocentrism would typically be a license to forecast a James Harden scoring title. Now that goes too far. Harden does not get to the rim nearly as often as before. Combined with the shift in how games are (expected to be) called, he is no longer guaranteed to pick up as many freebie opportunities at the line.

Assists will come easier. And they may not be all that easy. Harden needs those around him to make shots. He can’t lead the league in dimes while exclusively turning to a two-man game with Ivica Zubac.

That is yet another reason to pivot. Once again, though, the sheer amount of time Harden should spend on-ball is the difference-maker. The conversion rate on his potential assists may not be all that high. He’s just going to have so many of them it might not matter.

Prediction: Head coach JJ Redick gets them to finish in the top half of both three-point attempt and offensive rebounding rates.

“Top half” is not phrasing associated with marked improvement when riffing on teams with immediate aspirations. The Los Angeles Lakers are different.

Last year’s squad ranked 28th in the share of its shots that came from distance and finished 29th in offensive rebounding percentage. Getting to 15th, in both categories, qualifies as a monumental jump.

We saw traces of extra emphasis in both areas during preseason. The Lakers ranked 18th in three-pointers attempted per 100 possessions and then 16th in boarding their own misses.

Leveling up during the regular season may require pristine availability. But less proven rotation swing factors like Dalton Knecht and Max Christie seem empowered to get ’em up from three, and true to his word, Redick has guards and wings crashing in from the corners to try grabbing misses.

Prediction: Zach Edey will average a double-double with at least 1.5 blocks per game.

Zach Edey will have no trouble hitting the points-per-game threshold. His summer-league and preseason appearances have served as proof of concept for his utility inside the Memphis Grizzlies offense.

Getting to 10-plus boards and 1.5 blocks is a different story. Those benchmarks are lofty enough that they’re more at the mercy of his playing time. Edey profiles as a huge part of this Grizzlies team. But can we really ticket him for 30 minutes or so per game?

Let’s go with yes. Memphis’ rotation doesn’t have a contingency who does everything he can, and his ability to stay out of foul trouble, so far, squares away with the idea of his NBA readiness.

Rebounds will come in spades if he’s on the floor enough. A healthy Jaren Jackson Jr. can roam and free up Edey to focus on boarding misses. It would not shock me if the rookie hits two blocks per game for this same reason.

Still, this baseline production is ambitious enough. If you disagree, well, I hope you’re right. Either way, it’s an esteemed threshold to clear.

Here’s every rookie to average at least 10 points, 10 rebounds and 1.5 blocks: Tim Duncan, Alonzo Mourning, Dikembe Mutombo, Shaquille O’Neal, Emeka Okafor, Hakeem Olajuwon, David Robinson, Ralph Sampson, Karl-Anthony Towns and Victor Wembanyama. This is pretty good company, and it’s about to include Edey.

Prediction: Bam Adebayo attempts more than three triples per game.

I have probably predicted some variation of “Bam Adebayo will take more threes!” in the past. This time, I really mean it.

Adebayo dabbled in more outside volume by the end of 2024-25. But that uptick still topped out below two attempts from deep per game. He is going to obliterate that mark this year.

Point to whatever evidence most tickles your fancy. You have what he did during the Olympics. And then there’s his preseason volume (5.8 attempts per 36 minutes). Both factor into the logic here.

Necessity wins the day, though.

The Miami Heat’s offense can get too clumpy if Bam is at the elbows or being unguarded from beyond the arc. Jimmy Butler finds a way to provide rim pressure anyway, but he and Bam are often playing beside one or two other shooters about whom opposing teams don’t care.

Significantly bumping up Bam’s three-point volume goes a long way toward decongesting the half-court environment. He doesn’t even need to hit them, necessarily, at an absurd clip. He just has to take enough—and, yes, make enough—to incite more reactions from the defense.

Prediction: Giannis Antetokounmpo is more efficient than ever.

Giannis Antetokounmpo posted a 64.9 true shooting percentage last season, outstripping his previous career high of 64.4 from 2018-19.

Another personal-best mark is coming.

Better shot distribution fuels my belief that Giannis can explore new heights approaching his 30th birthday in December. Last season saw him cut down on mid-rangers and threes. This year is already seeing more of the same. He did not take a single three through two preseason appearances and just 16.1 percent of his overall attempts (five total) came as twos outside of the paint.

Exchanging more of those looks for higher-quality drives and dives toward the rim should further buoy his efficiency. And those opportunities will be made even more possible if the Milwaukee Bucks get a better version of Damian Lillard, a human inferno who struggled to knock down catch-and-shoot threes last season.

This in some ways doubles as blind faith that Giannis can up his free-throw clip. (For those who may not know: True shooting is a collective measure of two-point, three-point and free-throw efficiency.) This inkling isn’t evidence-based. Antetokounmpo canned 70.6 percent of his freebies in the preseason, but 17 attempts isn’t a telltale sample. He did routinely clear 70 percent prior to 2019-20, so there’s that.

Whatever. This isn’t critical to the underlying mission. Giannis has spit out bonkers efficiency amid unspectacular free-throw displays for years. Even if this season at the charity stripe is no different, the rest of his game will continue to be.

Prediction: Donte DiVincenzo gets more Sixth Man of the Year votes than Naz Reid.

As a career-long holder of Naz Reid stock, this absolutely pains me to predict. But I am doing it anyway.

Most lasered in on the Minnesota Timberwolves’ lack of a secondary ball-handling and creation last year. That wasn’t wrong. But complementary wing shooting was also at a noticeable deficit.

DiVencenzo’s fixes essentially all of that. It isn’t just last year’s long-range volume (third in total attempts) or efficiency (40.1 percent), but the manner in which they come. DiVincenzo can drill shots off balance, after flying around the half-court, from ultra-deep ranges. His impact will be felt not just in makes but in the space he opens up for Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle, Rob Dillingham, Mike Conley, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and even Reid himself.

Where these two rate on the Sixth Man of the Year scale may be a matter of preference. Reid is critical to peppering over the loss of Karl-Anthony Towns and coming off a SMOY victory. DiVincenzo, on the other hand, feels like he has the cleaner path to higher-leverage moments. He can be subbed into closing lineups for Randle or Conley (assuming Edwards, Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels are all locks).

Can the same be said for Reid? Probably not. He’s more of a plug-in for Gobert or Randle, both of whom seem less likely to get the hook when it matters most.

Make no bones about it, I am aware this could look egregious. I am assigning value to how the Wolves say they view Randle when many others probably believe his place in the pecking order is more fluid. This could all end with head coach Chris Finch bringing Randle off the bench and starting Reid or even DiVincenzo, rendering this predicting either a lock or hopeless.

We will see how this plays out. On the bright side, no matter where you land, this entire discussion paints a rosy-AF picture of Minnesota’s depth, even after an opening-night performance to forget.

Prediction: The recently extended Trey Murphy III will finish the season as a starter.

Does this amount to predicting the New Orleans Pelicans will trade Brandon Ingram? Or CJ McCollum?

Is it based on the assumption that New Orleans won’t trade—and then start—a conventionally sized big?

Am I simply saying a healthy Murphy will prove to be so valuable that he starts no matter what the rest of the roster looks like, logistical and optical politics be positively damned?? Is this a purely “They paid him (starting next season) so they are obviously going to start him” situation?

Take this declaration however you like. I won’t pretend to know the Pelicans’ endgame. Their roster is currently built in a way that seems accidental.

Regardless, whether it’s because New Orleans trades others or demotes them, Murphy will finish the year as an every-night starter. The real question is why, right hamstring injury aside, it doesn’t seem like he will begin the season as one.

Prediction: Karl-Anthony Towns sets a career high in three-point attempts per game.

This prediction is off to a horrendous start after Karl-Anthony Towns fired away just two threes in 24 minutes during the New York Knicks’ opening-night beatdown at the hands of the Boston Celtics. I am pushing forward with (faux)-confidence anyway.

Despite his reputation as an all-time floor-spacing big man, Towns has seldom bombed away in conventional terms. His career high in three-point attempts per game is 7.9. That’s pretty high. But it came all the way back in 2019-20—across a 35-game sample.

Since then, Towns has averaged six or more long-range attempts per game just once. And overall, he’s placed inside the top 50 in average three-point tries just twice. He peaked at 17th in 2019-20 and then placed 50th in 2020-21.

Towns’ career high will be reset this year. It almost has to be. His threat level from beyond the arc is among the bedrocks upon which the New York Knicks’ five-out hopes are built.

Sure, there will be room—and perhaps a demand—for him to sponge up traditional-hub reps. And you definitely want him attacking off over-aggressive closeouts and beelining toward the basket after screening for Jalen Brunson. But given the amount of minutes he’ll play beside the Knicks’ MVP, Towns will invariably be saddled with spacing around JB’s probing inside the arc.

If I were braver, I would predict that KAT places inside the top 10 of three-point attempts per game. It turns out I am a coward. But KAT won’t be. Couple his green light with New York’s biggest needs around Brunson and the Thibsian number of minutes KAT’s bound to log, and clearing eight tries a night from deep should be a relative formality, if not a mandate.